Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust winter/spring breeding areas (December 2021 – May 2022)

Due to the recent intensification of La Niña, dry conditions are expected to continue in the Horn of Africa that will restrict current breeding by Desert Locust. Drier than normal conditions expected in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will limit breeding from now until March except for slightly wetter conditions over the northern Red Sea in December. In the spring breeding areas, early rains could occur in the interior of the Arabian Peninsula during February followed by slightly wetter conditions there as well as in southwest Iran and Pakistan during April and May. In East Africa, slightly wetter than normal conditions could develop in March and April, coinciding with the Long Rains season.

Autumn breeding areas (December)

• Horn of Africa: drier than normal

Winter breeding areas (December–March)

• December: slightly wetter than normal (Egypt, Sudan, NW Saudi Arabia); normal (N Eritrea); drier than normal (S Eritrea, SW Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Gulf of Aden)
• January–March: drier than normal (all areas Red Sea and Gulf of Aden)

Spring breeding areas (March–May)

• East Africa: slightly wetter than normal in Kenya, Somalia, S+E Ethiopia (Mar–Apr)
• Arabian Peninsula interior: slightly wetter than normal in Saudi Arabia (Mar–May) and Yemen (Apr)
• SE Iran / SW Pakistan coast: drier than normal (Mar), slightly wetter than normal (Apr–May)
• NW Africa: drier than normal except N Mauritania (Mar)

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations