Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust summer/winter/spring breeding areas (October 2021 – March 2022)

A dry end is expected in the summer breeding areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea during October compared to a wet end along the Indo-Pakistan border. While below-average rainfall is expected in northern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia during the last quarter of this year, October rains may be sufficient to allow one generation of locust breeding. Drier than normal conditions are expected this winter along both sides of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden due to La Niña for the second consecutive year; however, sufficient rains could fall to allow breeding along the coast of Eritrea and Sudan. Drier than normal conditions are likely to limit spring breeding in southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan in March.

Summer breeding areas (October)

• Horn of Africa: slightly wetter than normal in NE Ethiopia, S Djibouti, NW Somalia (September) then drier than normal (October–December)
• W Africa / Sudan: a drier than normal end to the summer rainy period • Yemen interior: slightly wetter than normal (September) then drier than normal (October)
• Indo–Pakistan: a wetter than normal end to the monsoon rains (October)

Autumn breeding areas (October–December)

• Horn of Africa: drier than normal

Winter breeding areas (November–March)

• Red Sea / Gulf of Aden: drier than normal Spring breeding areas (March)
• Arabian Peninsula: drier than normal • SE Iran / SW Pakistan: drier than normal • NW Africa: drier than normal

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations