Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust summer/winter breeding areas (September 2021 – February 2022)

In the summer breeding areas of the Horn of Africa, wetter than normal conditions continue to be expected into September in northeast Ethiopia (Afar region) and southern Djibouti but becoming drying thereafter due to a prevailing La Niña situation. Nevertheless, rainfall may still be sufficient in eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia to allow one generation of locust breeding between October and December. In southwest Asia, slightly wetter than normal conditions are expected in the summer breeding areas along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border before the monsoon withdraws in the second half of September. In the interior of Yemen, slightly wetter than normal conditions are likely in September followed by drier conditions. In the northern Sahel of West Africa and Sudan, below-normal rains are expected in most areas; however, normal conditions are likely in northern Mali, Chad and Sudan and wetter conditions in western Eritrea during September. In the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, conditions will initially be drier than normal and remain so except along the coasts of Sudan and Eritrea during December and January.

Summer breeding areas (September–October)

• Horn of Africa: slightly wetter than normal in NE Ethiopia, S Djibouti, NW Somalia (September) then drier than normal (October–December)
• W Africa / Sudan: drier than normal (September–October) except September in N Mali, Chad, Sudan (normal) and W Eritrea (wetter)
• Yemen interior: slightly wetter than normal (September) then drier than normal (October)
• Indo–Pakistan: slightly wetter than normal (September–October)

Winter breeding areas (November–February)

• Red Sea / Gulf of Aden: initially drier than normal that continues in all areas except for normal conditions in Sudan and Eritrea (December–January)

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations