Horn of Africa Drought: Regional Humanitarian Overview & Call to Action (Revised 28 November 2022)

The Horn of Africa Is Facing An Unprecedented Drought Emergency, With Catastrophic Consequences

Communities in the Horn of Africa are in the midst of a likely fifth consecutive failed rainy season—with the October – December 2022 rains beginning poorly and forecasts indicating they are likely to underperform—and may face a sixth failed season in March-May 2023. The October-December 2020, March-May 2021, October-December 2021 and March-May 2022 seasons were all marred by below-average rainfall, leaving large swathes of Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya facing the most prolonged drought in recent history, while the March-May 2022 rainy season was the driest on record in the last 70 years. The 2020-2022 drought has now surpassed the horrific droughts in 2010-2011 and 2016-2017 in both duration and severity and will continue to deepen in the months ahead, with catastrophic consequences.

The Drought Is Ravaging Affected Communities, With Needs Spiralling

Across the Horn of Africa, at least 36.4 million people will be affected by the most prolonged and severe drought in recent history in the last months of 2022, including 24.1 million in Ethiopia, 7.8 million in Somalia and 4.5 million in Kenya. This includes over 9 million women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) who face dangers to their health and aggravated risks of gender-based violence due to the drought, according to UNFPA.

Two districts in Somalia are projected to face famine from October to December 2022 and at least 23 million people are enduring high levels of acute food insecurity due to drought in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. In Somalia, 6.7 million people will likely experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) from October to December, including over 300,000 in Catastrophic (IPC Phase 5) conditions, while people in rural areas of Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced people in Baidoa town of Bay region are at risk of famine.

About 11.9 million people in Ethiopia are severely food insecure due to the drought, according to the Mid-Year Review of the Humanitarian Response Plan. In Kenya, some 4.35 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) between October and December 2022, according to the Long Rains Season Assessment. With the October to December 2022 rains beginning poorly, food insecurity will rise in the months ahead, and between 23 and 26 million people will likely face acute food insecurity due to the Horn of Africa drought by February 2023, according to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG).

“There is no way we will survive the drought if we do not get assistance. People have already started dying. We will not be able to evade death as its already at our doors.” Daniel Lemalon told OCHA in Samburu, Kenya.

Over 9.5 million livestock—which pastoralist families rely upon for sustenance and livelihoods—have already died across the region, including 4 million in Ethiopia, 2.5 million in Kenya and over 3 million in Somalia, and many more are at risk. This translates to the loss of more than 120 million litres of milk, leaving 1.6 million children under age 5 across the region without a daily glass of milk, according to FAO, with severe consequences for their nutrition. In Kenya alone, the Government estimates the economic cost of livestock loss at more than $1.5 billion. The severity and duration of this drought present an existential threat to pastoralist communities in the hardest-hit areas, and more livestock are expected to perish in the months ahead, including at least 30 million weakened and emaciated livestock that are at risk in Ethiopia alone. Experience shows that it takes at least five years for a pastoralist family to rebuild their herd after a drought. However, with many families having lost all of their livestock during this drought, and droughts becoming more frequent and intense in the Horn of Africa, some may be forced to leave pastoralism.

A recent IOM assessment in Garissa county, Kenya, found that over 72,600 pastoralist households had lost their capital and livelihood opportunity.

“We fled hunger, but hunger followed us here. I tried to find help, but it was too late for Ahmed. He took two last breaths and that was it. He didn’t even cry.” Mahupo Ali, a mother of three children, who gave birth in a camp for displaced people but could not produce enough milk to feed her baby boy—told Save the Children in Baidoa, Somalia

Even if no famine emerges in Somalia, given the large number of people affected and the likely duration of the crisis, excess mortality during this drought could be as high as in 2011. As malnutrition soars in Somalia, more than 230 children have been buried in a single graveyard in Baidoa, according to Save the Children, and, across the Horn of Africa, the drought is driving alarming levels of malnutrition for children and women, threatening their lives and their futures. About 5.1 million children are acutely malnourished in drought-affected areas, of whom nearly 2.7 million are in Ethiopia 1 , 640,000 in Kenya and 1.8 million in Somalia. This includes about 1.4 million children who are severely acutely malnourished, including 705,000 in Ethiopia, 150,400 in Kenya and 513,550 in Somalia. In addition, an estimated 1.3 million pregnant and lactating women are acutely malnourished, including 969,000 in Ethiopia, 111,600 in Kenya and 184,400 in Somalia. In drought-affected areas, many women have sacrificed their own well-being and nutrition to care for their families.

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs