FSNWG Food Security Alert

FSNWG issued a food security alert calling for immediate action in response to expectations of rising food and nutrition insecurity linked to consecutive poor rainy seasons and forecasts for another poor season between October and December 2021 across parts of the Horn of Africa.

Since this alert was published, the following updates have become available:

Rainfall:

As forecasted, the start of the 2021 October – December rainy season has been significantly delayed with little to no rainfall observed to date across much of eastern and northern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, southern Ethiopia, bimodal areas of northern Tanzania, and localized areas of Uganda (Figure 1). Short-term forecasts from NOAA indicate a continuation of below-average rains across these areas through mid-November, and ICPAC reports “drier than usual conditions expected over northern and eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and western Tanzania” between November and January 2021.

An analysis of available CHIRPS satellite rainfall data and NOAA short-term forecasts suggest that rainfall levels through mid-November will likely be the lowest on record since 1981 across much of eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and in Liben zone of Ethiopia (Figure 2).

Crop conditions:

Harvest prospects are currently looking poor across affected areas. Agricultural models by USGS/FEWS NET are showing sufficient rains to consider the agricultural season started have either not happened yet or were up to 30 days late. In most of these areas, the cropping season normally starts in October, so this delay has likely prevented planting activities and/or crop establishment. Given the cropping calendars in the affected areas, it is unlikely that crops will recover regardless of rainfall that occurs during the remainder of the season.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations