East Africa Seasonal Monitor – October 29, 2021

The 2021 deyr/short-rains season, which occurs from September to December, is significantly delayed, poorly distributed, and cumulatively far below average (<50 percent) in the eastern Horn of Africa. Temperatures were also hotter-than-normal. As a result, pasture and water shortages are rapidly worsening across most pastoral and agro-pastoral regions, with little or no crop planting, as rainfall has been inadequate to support seed germination and crop development. This is the third sequential poor rainy season in this region, and prospects for agricultural production and livestock body conditions are below average in marginal agricultural and pastoral areas.

• Parts of the western and northern sector of the region continued to observe wetter-than-normal conditions, signaling the onset of the September to December seasonal rains and start of agricultural activities over the western sector of the region. Wet conditions have led to sustained flooding in South Sudan and Sudan and a risk of flooding in other areas such as Afar, Ethiopia. However, cumulative seasonal rainfall is forecast to be average to below average in Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda, with localized areas of below-average rainfall.

• As the June to September seasonal rains cease, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in the north with mixed production prospects due to the impact of conflict, socio-economic drivers, poor rainfall, and flooding in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen.

Source: Famine Early Warning System Network